Robust analysis of stepped wedge trials using cluster-level summaries within periods.

In stepped-wedge trials (SWTs), the intervention is rolled out in a random order over more than 1 time-period. SWTs are often analysed using mixed-effects models that require strong assumptions and may be inappropriate when the number of clusters is small. We propose a non-parametric within-period method to analyse SWTs. This method estimates the intervention effect by comparing intervention and control conditions in a given period using cluster-level data corresponding to exposure. The within-period intervention effects are combined with an inverse-variance-weighted average, and permutation tests are used. We present an example and, using simulated data, compared the method to (1) a parametric cluster-level within-period method, (2) the most commonly used mixed-effects model, and (3) a more flexible mixed-effects model. We simulated scenarios where period effects were common to all clusters, and when they varied according to a distribution informed by routinely collected health data. The non-parametric within-period method provided unbiased intervention effect estimates with correct confidence-interval coverage for all scenarios. The parametric within-period method produced confidence intervals with low coverage for most scenarios. The mixed-effects models' confidence intervals had low coverage when period effects varied between clusters but had greater power than the non-parametric within-period method when period effects were common to all clusters. The non-parametric within-period method is a robust method for analysing SWT. The method could be used by trial statisticians who want to emphasise that the SWT is a randomised trial, in the common position of being uncertain about whether data will meet the assumptions necessary for mixed-effect models

Beyond the barrier: Female Genital Schistosomiasis as a potential risk factor for HIV-1 acquisition.

Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) results from egg-deposition in the female reproductive tract primarily by the waterborne parasite Schistosoma (S.) haematobium, and less commonly by Schistosoma (S.) mansoni. FGS affects an estimated 20-56 million women worldwide, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. There is cross-sectional evidence of increased HIV-1 prevalence in schistosomiasis-infected women, but a causal relationship between FGS and either HIV-1 acquisition or transmission has not been fully established. Beyond the pathognomonic breach in the cervicovaginal barrier caused by FGS, this narrative review explores potential mechanisms for a synergistic relationship between S. haematobium infection, FGS, and HIV-1 acquisition through vaginal inflammation and target cell recruitment

A wide-spectrum language for verification of programs on weak memory models

Modern processors deploy a variety of weak memory models, which for efficiency reasons may (appear to) execute instructions in an order different to that specified by the program text. The consequences of instruction reordering can be complex and subtle, and can impact on ensuring correctness. Previous work on the semantics of weak memory models has focussed on the behaviour of assembler-level programs. In this paper we utilise that work to extract some general principles underlying instruction reordering, and apply those principles to a wide-spectrum language encompassing abstract data types as well as low-level assembler code. The goal is to support reasoning about implementations of data structures for modern processors with respect to an abstract specification. Specifically, we define an operational semantics, from which we derive some properties of program refinement, and encode the semantics in the rewriting engine Maude as a model-checking tool. The tool is used to validate the semantics against the behaviour of a set of litmus tests (small assembler programs) run on hardware, and also to model check implementations of data structures from the literature against their abstract specifications

The long-term impact of the MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual and reproductive health intervention: effect of dose and time since intervention exposure.

BACKGROUND: Despite recent decreases in HIV incidence in many sub-Saharan African countries, there is little evidence that specific behavioural interventions have led to a reduction in HIV among young people. Further and wider-scale decreases in HIV require better understanding of when behaviour change occurs and why. The MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual and reproductive health intervention has been implemented in rural Mwanza, Tanzania since 1999. A long-term evaluation in 2007/8 found that the intervention improved knowledge, attitudes to sex and some reported risk behaviours, but not HIV or HSV2 prevalence. The aim of this paper was to assess the differential impact of the intervention according to gender, age, marital status, number of years of exposure and time since last exposure to the intervention. METHODS: In 2007, a cross-sectional survey was conducted in the 20 trial communities among 13,814 young people (15-30 yrs) who had attended intervention or comparison schools between 1999 and 2002. Outcomes for which the intervention had an impact in 2001 or 2007 were included in this subgroup analysis. Data were analysed using cluster-level methods for stratified cluster-randomised trials, using interaction tests to determine if intervention impact differed by subgroup. RESULTS: Taking into account multiplicity of testing, concurrence with a priori hypotheses and consistency within the results no strong effect-modifiers emerged. Impact on pregnancy knowledge and reported attitudes to sex increased with years of exposure to high-quality intervention. CONCLUSIONS: The desirable long-term impact of the MEMA kwa Vijana intervention did not vary greatly according to the subgroups examined. This suggests that the intervention can have an impact on a broad cross-section of young people in rural Mwanza. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00248469

The epidemiology of gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection and syphilis in four African cities.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the epidemiology of gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection and syphilis in four cities in sub-Saharan Africa; two with a high prevalence of HIV infection (Kisumu, Kenya and Ndola, Zambia), and two with a relatively low HIV prevalence (Cotonou, Benin and Yaoundé, Cameroon). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study, using standardized methods, including a standardized questionnaire and standardized laboratory tests, in four cities in sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: In each city, a random sample of about 2000 adults aged 15-49 years was taken. Consenting men and women were interviewed about their socio-demographic characteristics and their sexual behaviour, and were tested for HIV, syphilis, herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2), gonorrhoea, chlamydial infection, and (women only) Trichomonas vaginalis infection. Risk factor analyses were carried out for chlamydial infection and syphilis seroreactivity. RESULTS: The prevalence of gonorrhoea ranged between 0% in men in Kisumu and 2.7% in women in Yaoundé. Men and women in Yaoundé had the highest prevalence of chlamydial infection (5.9 and 9.4%, respectively). In the other cities, the prevalence of chlamydial infection ranged between 1.3% in women in Cotonou and 4.5% in women in Kisumu. In Ndola, the prevalence of syphilis seroreactivity was over 10% in both men and women; it was around 6% in Yaoundé, 3-4% in Kisumu, and 1-2% in Cotonou. Chlamydial infection was associated with rate of partner change for both men and women, and with young age for women. At the population level, the prevalence of chlamydial infection correlated well with reported rates of partner change. Positive syphilis serology was associated with rate of partner change and with HSV-2 infection. The latter association could be due to biological interaction between syphilis and HSV-2 or to residual confounding by sexual behaviour. At the population level, there was no correlation between prevalence of syphilis seroreactivity and reported rates of partner change. CONCLUSION: Differences in prevalence of chlamydial infection could be explained by differences in reported sexual behaviour, but the variations in prevalence of syphilis seroreactivity remained unexplained. More research is needed to better understand the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections in Africa

Population-level effect of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.

BACKGROUND: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection increases acquisition and transmission of HIV, but the results of trials measuring the impact of HSV-2 therapy on HIV genital shedding and HIV acquisition are mixed, and the potential impact of HSV-2 therapy on the incidence of HIV at the population level is unknown. METHODS: The effects of episodic and suppressive HSV-2 therapy were simulated using the individual-level model STDSIM fitted to data from Cotonou, Benin (relatively low HIV prevalence) and Kisumu, Kenya (high HIV prevalence). Clinician- and patient-initiated episodic therapy, started when symptomatic, were assumed to reduce ulcer duration. Suppressive therapy, given regardless of symptoms, was also assumed to reduce ulcer frequency and HSV-2 infectiousness. RESULTS: Clinician-initiated episodic therapy in the general population had almost no effect on the incidence of HIV. The impact of patient-initiated therapy was higher because of earlier treatment initiation, but still low (20% in the long term. Impact was increased in both cities by also treating a proportion of their clients. Long-term suppressive therapy with high coverage in the general population could reduce HIV incidence by more than 30%. CONCLUSIONS: These results show that HSV-2 therapy could potentially have a population-level impact on the incidence of HIV, especially in more concentrated epidemics. However, a substantial impact requires high coverage and long duration therapy, or very high symptom recognition and treatment-seeking behaviour

Electoral Volatility, Political Sophistication, Trust and Efficacy

In this article we investigate voter volatility and analyze the causes and motives of switching vote intentions. We test two main sets of variables linked to volatility in literature; political sophistication and ‘political (dis)satisfaction’. Results show that voters with low levels of political efficacy tend to switch more often, both within a campaign and between elections. In the analysis we differentiate between campaign volatility and inter-election volatility and by doing so show that the dynamics of a campaign have a profound impact on volatility. The campaign period is when the lowly sophisticated switch their vote intention. Those with higher levels of interest in politics have switched their intention before the campaign has started. The data for this analysis are from the three wave PartiRep Belgian Election Study (2009)

Prevalence of Human Papillomavirus in Adolescent Girls Before Reported Sexual Debut

Background. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are recommended for girls prior to sexual debut because they are most effective if administered before girls acquire HPV. Little research has been done on HPV prevalence in girls who report not having passed sexual debut in high HPV-prevalence countries. Methods. Using attendance registers of randomly selected primary schools in the Mwanza region of Tanzania, we enrolled girls aged 15–16 years who reported not having passed sexual debut. A face-to-face interview on sexual behavior and intravaginal practices, and a nurse-assisted self-administered vaginal swab were performed. Swabs were tested for 13 high-risk and 24 low-risk HPV genotypes. Results. HPV was detected in 40/474 (8.4%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9–11.0) girls. Ten different high-risk and 21 different low-risk genotypes were detected. High-risk genotypes were detected in 5.3% (95% CI, 3.5–7.8). In multivariable analysis, only intravaginal cleansing (practiced by 20.9%) was associated with HPV detection (adjusted odds ratio = 2.19, 95% CI, 1.09–4.39). Conclusion. This cohort of adolescent Tanzanian girls had a high HPV prevalence prior to self-reported sexual debut, and this was associated with intravaginal cleansing. This most likely reflects underreporting of sexual activity, and it is possible that intravaginal cleansing is a marker for unreported sexual debut or nonpenetrative sexual behaviors